We're picking up steam now. The second round of the Animusic Tournament has already finished and we're barreling through the third round as I write. Thanks to the seeding, the first round saw only a few truly tough match-ups to choose from; but, with each round going forward, it will get more and more difficult. I was curious to see if the increased competition in the second round would further the trends seen in the first round or introduce a new direction. This post will summarize what I found.
I hear Excel calling to me .
AGE
Average Age of All Songs -
2005.98
~7.52 years old
Average Age Round 1 Winners -
2006.29
~7.21 years old
Average Age Round 2 Winners -
2006.39
~7.11 years old
Well, well. At first blush, it appears the older songs were able to put up a better fight in the second round since the average age of the round 2 winners only youtheneda bit. This thought was quickly tempered when I remembered the opening to Space Battleship Yamato won it's second round match and a quick check showed that if you exclude this song the average age would have gotten half a year more younger. With Space Battleship Yamato looking like it will lose it's third round match, it looks like the march towards younger and younger songs has continued unabated.SONG TYPE
# at Start
% at Start
# Won 1st Rnd
% Won 1st Rnd
% After 1st Rnd
# Won 2nd Rnd
% Won 2nd Rnd
% After 2nd Rnd
Opening
152
59.4
75
49.3
58.6
40
53.3
62.5
Ending
75
29.3
39
52.0
30.5
20
51.3
31.3
Insert
29
11.3
14
48.3
10.9
4
28.6
6.3
The big loser in the second round was definitely the insert songs with a mere 4 making it to the third round. (Libera me from hell, God knows, Torukia, Hybrid Rainbow being the four songs.) Beyond that not much else changed. With their traditionally higher BPMs, the opening songs hegemony continues. It would be hypocritical for me to complain, though. If I could actually understand the songs I'm voting on then it might be different; however, outside of emotional attachment, the strongest driver in my voting is how the song affects me and getting me pumped is one of the best ways to earn my vote.Decade
# at Start
# Won 1st Rd
% Won 1st Rnd
# Won 2nd Rnd
% Won 2nd Rnd
% Won from Start
1970 s
1
1
100.0
1
100.0
100.0
1980 s
8
1
12.5
0
0.0
0.0
1990 s
28
15
53.6
9
60.0
32.1
2000 s
125
65
52.0
27
41.5
21.6
2010 s
94
46
48.9
27
58.7
28.7
The whiff of nostalgia and recency bias seem to cling to the second round results here with the nineties and teens doing well at the cost of middle ought years. We'll see if that holds up when the results get broken down by year. I kinda like the symmetry with how the 3.5 years of the teens have produced the same number of second round winners as the 10 year ought years.
# at Start
# Won 1st Rnd
% Won 1st Rnd
# Won 2nd Rnd
% Won 2nd Rnd
% Won from Start
1974
1
1
100.0
1
100.0
100.0
1982
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
1983
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
1984
2
1
50.0
0
0.0
0.0
1985
2
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
1986
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
1987
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
1990
1
1
100.0
0
0.0
0.0
1992
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
1994
2
1
50.0
1
100.0
50.0
1995
3
2
66.7
1
50.0
33.3
1996
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
1997
5
3
60.0
2
66.7
40.0
1998
10
6
60.0
4
66.7
40.0
1999
5
2
40.0
1
50.0
20.0
2000
5
2
40.0
2
100.0
40.0
2001
4
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
2002
9
5
55.6
3
60.0
33.3
2003
6
4
66.7
1
25.0
16.7
2004
18
11
61.1
4
36.4
22.2
2005
12
6
50.0
2
33.3
16.7
2006
16
7
43.8
2
28.6
12.5
2007
17
10
58.8
3
30.0
17.6
2008
18
9
50.0
5
55.6
27.8
2009
20
11
55.0
5
45.5
25.0
2010
23
11
47.8
4
36.4
17.4
2011
31
15
48.4
9
60.0
29.0
2012
33
18
54.5
13
72.2
39.4
2013
7
2
28.6
1
50.0
14.3
What I find interesting here is the years that did well in the second round weren't necessarily the same years that did well in the first round. Take 2011, for example, in the first round it did a light 48.4% but came back in the second round with a 60% win rate. Then there was 2007. In round 1 it won a strong 58.8% of it's matches but turned around and only won 30% of it's second round matches. And, of course, some years continued to perform the same - 2006 did poorly again and 1998, 2012 did good again. In fact, of the years that had 10 or more songs in the tournament, 1998 and 2012 have put the greatest percentage of their songs (~40%) through to third round. I'd like to know why 2010 has performed as weakly as it has. Only 17.4% of it's songs have moved onto the third round when 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 have all placed at least 25% of their songs into the third round.ANIMATION COMPANY
Company
# at Start
# Won 1st Rnd
% Won 1st Rnd
# Won 2nd Rnd
% Won 2nd Rnd
% Won from Start
A-1 Pictures
9
6
66.7
3
50.0
33.3
AIC
8
4.5
56.3
1
22.2
12.5
Bones
15
10
66.7
5
50.0
33.3
Brains Base
8
5
62.5
3
60.0
37.5
Gainax
8.5
5.5
64.7
3
54.5
35.3
Gonzo
8
3
37.5
1
33.3
12.5
J.C. Staff
19.5
11
56.4
5
45.5
25.6
KyoAni
13
8
61.5
4
50.0
30.8
Madhouse
12
9
75.0
3
33.3
25.0
Production IG
17
10.5
61.8
6
57.1
35.3
Satelight
10
5
50.0
4
80.0
40.0
Shaft
14
8
57.1
6
75.0
42.9
Sunrise
23
6
26.1
3
50.0
13.0Toei
5
0
0
xebec
5.5
0
0
Pierrot
6
2
33.3
0
0
0
The top part of this list is all the animation companies that placed at least 8 songs into the tournament. I chose 8 because I wanted to see how well the various animation companies are at picking their music over multiple shows and any lower would see a company make the list for a single franchise. The bottom part of the list are the three companies that placed the most songs into the tournament who have failed to have one advance to the third round. Speaking of failing, after a disastrous first round Sunrise was able to rebound and advance half of their remaining songs. Their overall win rate is still near the bottom, only AIC and Gonzo have done worse amongst the animation companies with at least 8 songs in the tournament. Speaking of failing again, Madhouse, after having the highest win rate in the first round 75% nose-dived in the second with a paltry 33.3% win rate - one of the lowest in the second round from this group of animation companies. On the other end, Satelight (80%) and Shaft (75%) did the best, percentage wise, in the second round and they have the best win rates overall. Looking at the pure numbers, Shaft and Production I.G have the most songs (6 each) in the third round. Between the two of them that's 3/16 or 18.75% of the remain songs.# Won 1st Rnd
%Won 1st Rnd
# Won 2nd Rnd
% Won 2nd Rnd
% Won from start
Top 10
10
100.0
10
100.0
100.0
Top 20
18
90.0
17
94.4
85.0
Top 128
104
81.3
60
57.7
46.9
Bottom 128
24
18.8
4
16.7
3.11 - 50
42
84.0
39
92.9
78.0
51 - 100
41
82.0
17
41.5
34.0
101 - 150
27
54.0
4
14.8
8.0
151 - 200
10
20.0
2
20.0
4.0
201 - 250
8
16.0
2
25.0
4.0
251 - 256
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0101 - 128
21
75.0
4
19.0
14.3
129 - 150
6
27.3
0
0.0
0.0
The second round results continue to show the importance of the initial seeding. After the first round, it was apparent how important being in the top half was and now in the second round it's once again shown how important it is to be in the top half of the top half. In the first round, 42/50 of the top 50 songs won which was nearly matched by songs of rank #51-100, 41/50; however, in the second round the top 50 songs advanced 39/42 or 92.9% of their songs vs. only 41.5% of the songs ranked 51-100.# at Start
# Won 1st Rnd
% Won 1st Rnd
# Won 2nd Rnd
% Won 2nd Rnd
% Won from Start
Angel Beats
4
2
50.0
1
50.0
25.0
Aquarion
6
3
50.0
2
66.7
33.3
Aria
7
4
57.1
1
25.0
14.3
Monogatari
5
4
80.0
3
75.0
60.0
Cowboy Bebop
6
3
50.0
2
66.7
33.3
Evangelion
5
4
80.0
1
25.0
20.0
Fate/Zero
4
1
25.0
1
100.0
25.0
Full Metal Alchemist
4
3
75.0
1
33.3
25.0
Ghost in the Shell
4
4
100.0
3
75.0
75.0
Macross
6
3
50.0
2
66.7
33.3
Mawaru Penguindrum
4
2
50.0
2
100.0
50.0
Gundam
5
3
60.0
1
33.3
20.0
Railgun/Index
4
2
50.0
1
50.0
25.0Psycho-pass
3
3
100.0
1
33.3
33.3
Puella Magi Madoka Magica
3
3
100.0
2
66.7
66.7
Steins;Gate
3
3
100.0
1
33.3
33.3
The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya
3
3
100.0
1
33.3
33.3
Last, but not least, I updated my listing of the top franchises. The top part lists all the franchises that had 4 or more songs going into tournament and the bottom part lists those franchises that placed only 3 songs and saw all three advance in the first round. Except for Ghost in the Shell, I'm not real surprised to see which franchises have done the best so far. In the case of Ghost in the Shell, I'm not surprised it's done as great as it has because the franchise has been so strong musically; I am surprised that a sufficient number of voters have remembered Ghost in the Shell after all this time. The other franchises that have seen 50% or more of their songs make it to the third round include Puella Magi Madoka Magica, Mawaru Penguindrum, and the Monogatari series.I'll close by mentioning that, after the second round, I'm currently ranked number 1 on Omo's Fantasy Challonge Bracket for the Animusic Tournament which is cool but is also embarrassing because it will be all the more obvious when my pickings fall apart and I end up far from the top. Which is what I wanted to say on the Animusic Tournament site when my performance so far was remarked upon but for some reason my comments aren't showing up there. Which is a bummer because I've been wanting to comment on other posts as well over there and can't.
Oh, I should mention that I don't think I'll be updating this set of stats after the third round in whole. I might post an abbreviated set of stats if there's something interesting to show but, as we pare down the songs, pretty much all the percentages are going to look the same. Instead, maybe I'll talk about the songs themselves. I do have a list of songs I discovered because of this tournament but with my inability to post over there I'll have to do it here.
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